Financial Modelling
Using Claude
Build investment banking style financial models faster with AI. From P&L analysis to DCF valuations, LBO models, and real Indian company case studies โ all with Claude.
Why Claude for Financial Modelling?
Investment banking analysts spend 70% of their time on data gathering, formatting, and mechanical model-building โ work that Claude can do in minutes. The remaining 30% โ judgment, client insight, deal intuition โ is where you add irreplaceable value.
Claude Basics for Finance Professionals
Before using Claude for financial modelling, understand how it thinks, what it knows, and what it doesn't.
Setting Up Your Claude Workflow
The difference between mediocre and exceptional output from Claude is the workflow. Use this 4-step process consistently.
Prompt Engineering for Finance
Generic prompts produce generic output. Financial modelling requires precise prompts that specify methodology, assumptions, format, and detail.
| โ Vague Prompt | โ Precise Prompt |
|---|---|
| "Analyse this P&L" | "Identify the top 3 cost items as % of revenue, calculate YoY change, and flag any that deteriorated by more than 200 bps" |
| "Build a DCF model" | "Build a 5-year DCF using 12% WACC, 4% terminal growth, FCF starting at โน2,000 Cr growing at 18% in Y1-3 and 12% Y4-5" |
| "What's the valuation?" | "Calculate equity value using DCF and cross-check with EV/EBITDA of 20x. Current share price is โน850. Is it overvalued?" |
Finance Terminology Claude Understands
| Category | Terms Claude knows |
|---|---|
| Valuation | DCF, DDM, EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/B, EV/Revenue, PEG, Sum-of-parts, NAV, Gordon Growth Model, FCFF, FCFE |
| IB / Deal | LBO, M&A, accretion/dilution, synergies, control premium, deal premium, fairness opinion, hockey stick |
| P&L | EBITDA, EBIT, PAT, EPS, diluted EPS, gross margin, EBITDA margin, OCF, capex, working capital, D&A, COGS |
| Balance Sheet | Net debt, goodwill, intangibles, D/E ratio, interest coverage, current ratio, quick ratio, net debt/EBITDA |
| Risk Metrics | Beta, WACC, risk-free rate, equity risk premium, cost of debt, cost of equity, CAPM, terminal value |
| India-specific | SEBI, BSE, NSE, FII, DII, promoter holding, ESOP dilution, rights issue, QIP, bonus shares |
๐ก The Finance Analyst's Edge
But Claude cannot replace what makes a senior analyst valuable โ the ability to read between the lines of a management call, to sense that a company's margin story doesn't quite add up, to know which assumptions the buyside will push back on hardest.
The analysts who will dominate the next decade combine deep financial judgment with Claude as a force multiplier.
Data Inputs & Sources
Claude's output quality is entirely dependent on the quality of data you provide.
Output Formats & Validation
| Output Format | When to Use | How to Request |
|---|---|---|
| Markdown table | Quick analysis, emails | "Output as a markdown table with โน Cr units" |
| CSV format | Paste directly into Excel | "Output in CSV format so I can paste into Excel" |
| Written analysis | Investment memo | "Write a 200-word valuation commentary suitable for an investment memo" |
| Bullet summary | Exec summary | "Summarise the 5 key takeaways in bullet points for a CFO" |
๐ก Garbage In, Genius Out
Claude will build whatever model you specify from whatever data you provide. Wrong base year revenue โ wrong 5-year projections, confidently presented.
The rule: Spend 80% of your time getting inputs right. The model-building is easy โ Claude handles that. Understanding the business, identifying the right assumptions, knowing what to normalise โ that's yours.
Before every session: audit your inputs. Is the revenue figure recurring or does it include one-time items? Is the FY2024 debt figure pre or post the recent rights issue?
Limitations & When Not to Rely on Claude
Key Distinctions โ Foundation
Quiz โ Foundation (10 Questions)
Intro: Financial Statement Analysis
Every investment decision starts with the three financial statements. Claude can read this story faster than any analyst and spot inconsistencies that take humans hours to find.
Reading P&L with Claude
The P&L is the most-read and most-misunderstood financial statement. Claude can extract key insights in minutes โ but you need to know what questions to ask.
Here is the P&L for Hindustan Unilever (โน Cr): Revenue: FY22 โน51,468 | FY23 โน58,154 | FY24 โน60,264 EBITDA: FY22 โน12,840 | FY23 โน14,085 | FY24 โน15,067 PAT: FY22 โน8,591 | FY23 โน9,962 | FY24 โน10,114 Analyse: (1) Gross margin trend, (2) EBITDA margin trend, (3) Revenue growth deceleration, (4) Key concerns for FY25E
Revenue Quality Analysis
Not all revenue is equal. โน1,000 Cr of recurring subscription revenue is worth far more than โน1,000 Cr of one-time project revenue.
๐ก Revenue Is Not Income
Revenue recognition โ Cash collection: If a company books โน100 Cr of revenue but the customer hasn't paid yet, that โน100 Cr sits in receivables.
Net income โ Cash flow: Depreciation is subtracted to calculate profit but is a non-cash charge. Capex spends real cash but doesn't hit the P&L immediately.
This is why seasoned analysts always start with the cash flow statement, not the P&L.
Balance Sheet Deep Dive
The balance sheet reveals capital allocation decisions, debt sustainability, and hidden risks that the P&L never shows.
Working Capital Analysis
Working capital management reveals operational efficiency. A company can grow revenue while destroying cash through poor working capital management.
| Metric | Formula | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Receivable Days (DSO) | Receivables รท (Revenue/365) | Rising DSO = customers paying slower or channel stuffing |
| Inventory Days (DIO) | Inventory รท (COGS/365) | Rising inventory in declining-price business destroys value |
| Payable Days (DPO) | Payables รท (COGS/365) | Extending payables improves cash flow but may damage supplier relationships |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | DSO + DIO - DPO | Days the business needs to finance operations. Negative = gets paid before paying suppliers |
๐ก Cash Is King
Cash-generative businesses: Nestlรฉ India, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints show consistently rising retained earnings with minimal debt.
Cash-consuming businesses: Companies that raise equity or debt every 2-3 years, show goodwill impairments, or see net debt rising faster than EBITDA.
Ask Claude: "Compare the net debt trajectory over 5 years to EBITDA growth. Is the company deleveraging or levering up?"
Cash Flow Statement Analysis
| Section | What it shows | Key question for Claude |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Cash from core operations | "Is OCF consistently higher than net profit? If not, why?" |
| Investing Cash Flow | Capex, acquisitions, asset sales | "What % of OCF is being reinvested as capex?" |
| Financing Cash Flow | Debt raised/repaid, dividends | "Is the company consistently raising new debt or repaying?" |
| Free Cash Flow | OCF minus Capex | "Calculate FCF yield (FCF/Market Cap). Is it improving?" |
Ratio Analysis with Claude
Calculate the following ratios: PROFITABILITY: Gross Margin, EBITDA Margin, Net Margin, ROE, ROCE LIQUIDITY: Current Ratio, Quick Ratio LEVERAGE: Debt/Equity, Net Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage EFFICIENCY: Asset Turnover, Receivable Days, Inventory Turnover VALUATION: P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, P/Book, Dividend Yield Flag any ratio outside sector norm.
Red Flag Detection
๐ก Accounting Red Flags
Satyam (2009): The balance sheet showed โน5,040 Cr of cash that didn't exist. The tell: the company was raising debt despite showing massive cash balances.
IL&FS (2018): Net debt/EBITDA expanded from 4x to 12x over 5 years while management maintained an investment-grade narrative.
Claude's role: Give Claude 5 years of financial data and ask it to "flag any metrics that show a consistent deteriorating trend."
Comparative Analysis & Peer Benchmarking
A company's financial metrics only become meaningful compared to peers and its own history.
Build a peer comparison for Indian IT sector (FY2024): Company | Rev (โนCr) | EBITDA% | PAT% | ROE% | P/E | EV/EBITDA TCS | 2,40,893 | 27.1 | 19.1 | 52.1 | 28x | 19x Infosys | 1,53,670 | 22.1 | 16.9 | 31.8 | 24x | 17x Wipro | 89,783 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 15.1 | 22x | 14x Calculate sector medians, premium/discount for each company, rank on quality, identify best value.
Lab: Analyse TCS Annual Report
TCS FY2024 Financial Analysis
Using TCS's publicly available FY2024 annual report data, build a complete financial analysis using Claude.
Key Distinctions
Quiz โ Statement Analysis
Valuation Framework
DCF Fundamentals
FCFt = Free Cash Flow in year t | WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital | Terminal Value = FCFn ร (1+g) / (WACC - g)
Section 3 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 4 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 5 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 6 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 7 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 8 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 9 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 10 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 11 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 12 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 13 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 14 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 15 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 16 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 17 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 18 โ DCF & Valuation
This slide covers advanced concepts in DCF & Valuation. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Claude in Excel โ Setup & Workflow
Formula Generation with Claude
| What You Need | Claude Output |
|---|---|
| 5-year CAGR from B5 to B10 | =((B10/B5)^(1/5))-1 |
| WACC (equity weight B1, Ke B2, debt weight B3, Kd B4, tax B5) | =(B1*B2)+(B3*B4*(1-B5)) |
| DCF PV of FCFs in C2:C6 at WACC in F1 | =SUMPRODUCT(C2:C6/((1+$F$1)^ROW(A1:A5))) |
| LBO IRR for -โน500 then โน180, โน200, โน220, โน240, โน900 | =IRR(B1:B6) |
Section 3 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 4 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 5 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 6 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 7 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 8 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 9 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 10 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 11 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 12 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 13 โ Excel + Claude
This slide covers advanced concepts in Excel + Claude. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Investment Banking Models Overview
LBO Model Basics
Entry EV: โน2,000 Cr at 10x EBITDA. Debt: โน1,400 Cr @ 10.5% Equity: โน600 Cr. EBITDA grows 15%/yr. Exit at 12x after 5 yrs. Calculate: Exit EV, Exit Equity Value, MOIC, IRR
Section 3 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 4 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 5 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 6 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 7 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 8 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 9 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 10 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 11 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
Section 12 โ IB Models
This slide covers advanced concepts in IB Models. Content based on real IB practice and Indian market examples.
The Case Study Approach
Theory becomes skill only when applied to real companies with real data. This module walks through three complete financial analyses using Claude โ Tata Motors (cyclical auto), Infosys (IT services), and a D2C Startup โ showing exactly how a professional analyst would approach each.
Tata Motors: DCF Walkthrough
Tata Motors is one of India's most complex listed companies โ two distinct businesses (India CV/PV and JLR), cyclical earnings, massive debt, and an EV transition underway. Valuing it requires a Sum-of-Parts approach, not a simple DCF.
Build a Sum-of-Parts valuation for Tata Motors: India Ops: EBITDA โน12,000 Cr | Peers trade at 8-10x EV/EBITDA JLR: EBITDA ยฃ2,800 Mn | European luxury auto peers: 4-6x EV/EBITDA Net Debt (consolidated): โน48,000 Cr Shares outstanding: 360 Cr | GBP/INR: 107 Calculate: India EV, JLR EV (in โน), Total EV, Equity Value, Price per share. Apply 15% holdco discount. Sensitivity: JLR at 4x vs 6x EBITDA. What drives the biggest swing in price?
Tata Motors: Valuation Verdict
After building the model, the analyst must reach a conclusion โ and defend it. This is where the judgment comes in. Claude gives you the numbers. You make the call.
Write a 200-word investment thesis on Tata Motors for an equity research initiation report. Current price: โน950. Base case SOTP: โน1,050. Bull: โน1,200. Bear: โน650. Include: business quality assessment, key catalysts, key risks, and recommendation (Buy/Hold/Sell).
In FY2024, Tata Motors reported โน31,807 Cr PAT. If you apply 15x P/E, you get a market cap of โน4.77 lakh Cr โ implying a share price of โน1,325. This looks compelling if current price is โน950.
But these are peak-cycle earnings. When the cycle turns (recession, credit tightening, commodity spike), JLR's EBITDA can halve in 12 months. The "cheap at 15x peak earnings" stock becomes "expensive at 30x trough earnings."
The professional solution: mid-cycle EBITDA. Take the average EBITDA over the full cycle (up-years + down-years). Apply your multiple to this normalised number. This prevents overpaying at the peak and panic-selling at the trough.
Ask Claude: "Average Tata Motors' EBITDA over FY20-FY24 (including the loss years). Apply a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple to this mid-cycle EBITDA. Compare to current EV. Is the stock cheap or expensive vs mid-cycle?"
This single analysis separates cyclical investing skill from noise.
Infosys: IT Sector Financial Model
Infosys is an asset-light, cash-generative, high-ROE IT services business โ the opposite of Tata Motors. The valuation challenges here are different: US revenue concentration, wage inflation, deal ramp timelines, and attrition risk.
Infosys: Comps Analysis vs Peers
Infosys trades at a discount to TCS โ but does it deserve to? A rigorous comps analysis answers this question with data, not intuition.
Build a comprehensive IT sector comps table (FY2024 data): Company |Rev(โนCr)|EBITDA%|PAT%|ROE%|Attrition|Rev CAGR|EV/EBITDA|P/E TCS |240,893 | 27.1 |19.1|52.1| 12.3% | 8.2% | 19x | 28x Infosys |153,670 | 22.1 |16.9|31.8| 12.9% | 4.1% | 17x | 24x Wipro | 89,783 | 16.8 |13.2|15.1| 14.2% | 2.3% | 14x | 22x HCL Tech |104,442 | 22.8 |14.6|24.4| 13.1% | 7.9% | 15x | 19x Analyse: (1) Is Infosys's discount to TCS justified? (2) Which company offers best value (quality/price tradeoff)? (3) What would close the TCS-Infosys multiple gap? (4) Rank all 4 on: quality score, value score, combined score
The answer is a combination of four factors that Claude can help you quantify:
1. Margin differential: TCS's 27% EBITDA margin vs Wipro's 17% reflects better pricing power, lower attrition costs, and more efficient delivery. Higher margins = more durable earnings = higher multiple.
2. Growth differential: TCS's 8.2% revenue CAGR vs Wipro's 2.3% means TCS's earnings base grows faster. Higher growth = higher multiple.
3. Return on capital: TCS's 52% ROE vs Wipro's 15% reflects dramatically better capital efficiency. The market pays more for businesses that generate higher returns on each rupee of capital.
4. Predictability: TCS has a more stable, diversified revenue base โ higher revenue visibility = lower risk premium = lower discount rate = higher multiple.
The combined effect: TCS deserves a structural premium. The question is whether the current premium (28x vs 22x = 27% premium) is appropriate, excessive, or insufficient given these fundamental differences.
Startup Financial Model: D2C Brand
Modelling a pre-profit startup requires a completely different framework from established companies. Traditional P/E and EV/EBITDA are meaningless. Unit economics, cohort analysis, and path to profitability are everything.
SaaS Metrics & Unit Economics
SaaS (Software as a Service) businesses have their own financial language โ ARR, MRR, churn, NRR, CAC payback. These metrics tell you more about a SaaS business than a traditional P&L ever could. Claude understands all of them.
| Metric | Formula | Benchmark | Claude Prompt |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARR | Annual Recurring Revenue = MRR ร 12 | Growth rate > 30% is strong | "Calculate ARR growth rate from โน24 Cr to โน38 Cr in 12 months" |
| Churn Rate | Customers lost / Beginning customers | <5% annual = excellent | "If we start with 500 customers and lose 8/month, what is annual churn?" |
| NRR | Net Revenue Retention = (Revenue from existing customers including expansions) / Prior period revenue | >110% = best-in-class | "Calculate NRR: 100 customers at โน10L each, 5 churned, 20 expanded to โน15L" |
| CAC Payback | CAC / (Monthly Revenue per customer ร Gross Margin) | <12 months = strong | "CAC โน60,000, MRR per customer โน8,000, GM 75%. What is payback period?" |
| LTV/CAC | LTV / CAC | >3x = healthy unit economics | "LTV = โน240,000, CAC = โน60,000. Is this business viable? At what scale?" |
Course Summary & Your Next Steps
You have now completed the most comprehensive financial modelling with Claude course available. Here is what you have built โ and what to do next.
Quiz โ Case Studies (10 Questions)
Final Certification Exam
Test your knowledge across all 6 modules. Pass to receive your Financial Modelling Using Claude certificate, valid for 1 year.